The impact of COVID-19 on the interpretation of psycho-oncological support trial results: a quasi-experimental approach using the data from the new form of care "Integrated cross-sectoral psycho-oncology (nFC-isPO)".

OBJECTIVE: In addition to the common difficulties of ongoing trials, the COVID-19 pandemic posed several challenges to scientists worldwide and created an additional burden for vulnerable patient groups. In the nFC-isPO of individualised treatment for anxiety and depression in newly diagnosed patients with cancer caregivers (e.g. psycho-oncologists) reported elevated HADS scores in newly enrolled patients after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Accordingly, the question arises whether the pandemic affected HADS scores. Therefore, stratified analyses by the time of enrolment (T1) were performed for patients with 12 months of care (T3). METHODS: Patients with 12 months of care (N = 1,140) were analysed. A comparison within the regression discontinuity design according to the time points at which patients completed the baseline (T1) HADS questionnaire was conducted to examine differences between patients recruited before Q2/2020 (pre-pandemic) and after the coronavirus outbreak. Furthermore, mean HADS scores at T1 and T3 for all quarters during the study were compared. RESULTS: Mean T1 and T3 HADS scores of patients with cancer during the pandemic are only slightly higher than those of the pre-pandemic group. No significant treatment effect was observed in either the pre-pandemic (p = 0.5495, Late = 1.7711) or the post-pandemic group (p = 0.9098, LATE=-0.2933). In contrast, the average local treatment effect in the post-pandemic group suggests a minimal decrease in HADS score in the predefined range and thus a positive treatment effect for isPO. Comparison of mean HADS scores at T1 and T3 did not show a large increase by pandemic-related timepoints, however, a decrease of approximately 2-3 points over each quarter at 12 months compared to baseline is observed. CONCLUSION: The existing nFC-isPO care is resilient to crisis and may counteract external influences such as the Corona pandemic. Accordingly, the pandemic had little influence on the fears of patients with cancer in the nFC-isPO. This emphasises that psycho-oncology is vital for the reduction of stress, anxiety and depression in patients with cancer. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered in the German Clinical Trials Registry on 30 October 2018 under the ID "DRKS00015326".

Association between COVID-19 emergency declarations and physical activity among community-dwelling older adults enrolled in a physical activity measurement program: Evidence from a retrospective observational study using the regression discontinuity design.

BACKGROUND: The current study examines the negative impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emergency declarations on physical activity among the community-dwelling older adults, the participants of a physical activity measurement program, in Japan. METHODS: This retrospective observational study included 1,773 community-dwelling older adults (aged 74.6 ± 6.3 years, 53.9% women) who had participated in the physical activity measurement project from February 2020 to July 2021. We measured physical activity using a tri-axial accelerometer during 547 consecutive days. Three emergency declarations, requesting people to avoid going outside, occurred during the observational period. We multiply-imputed missing values for daily physical activity, such as steps, light physical activity (LPA), and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) for several patterns of datasets according to the maximum missing rates on a person level. We mainly report the results based on less than 50% of the maximum missing rate (n = 1,056). Other results are reported in the supplemental file. Changes in physical activity before and after the start of each emergency declaration were examined by the regression discontinuity design (RDD) within 14-, 28-, and 56-day bandwidths. RESULTS: For all the participants in the multiply-imputed data with the 14-day bandwidth, steps (coefficients [[Formula: see text]][Formula: see text] 964.3 steps), LPA ([Formula: see text] 5.5 min), and MVPA ([Formula: see text] 4.9 min) increased after the first emergency declaration. However, the effects were attenuated as the RDD bandwidths were widened. No consistent negative impact was observed after the second and third declarations. After the second declaration, steps ([Formula: see text]-609.7 steps), LPA ([Formula: see text]-4.6 min), and MVPA ([Formula: see text]-2.8 min) decreased with the 14-day bandwidth. On the other hand, steps ([Formula: see text] 143.8 steps) and MVPA ([Formula: see text] 1.3 min) increased with the 56-day bandwidth. For the third declaration, LPA consistently decreased with all the bandwidths ([Formula: see text]-2.1, -3.0, -0.8 min for the 14, 28, 56-day bandwidth), whereas steps ([Formula: see text]-529 steps) and MVPA ([Formula: see text]-2.6 min) decreased only with the 28-day bandwidth. CONCLUSIONS: For the community-dwelling older adults who regularly self-monitor their physical activity, the current study concludes that there is no evidence of consistently negative impacts of the emergency declarations by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of the emergency response to COVID-19 on air quality and its policy implications: Evidence from 290 cities in China.

The emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic had an extreme exogenous impact on society and the economy. This paper aims to explore the impacts of the national emergency response and the subsequent emergency response termination on air quality and its policy implications through regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimation by employing panel data on daily air quality from January 1, 2019, to July 31, 2020, for 290 cities in China. The empirical results showed that the emergency response resulted in a significant decrease in most of the major pollutant concentrations within a short time frame, and the average air quality index (AQI) decreased by approximately 11.0%. The concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO decreased by approximately 18.8%, 13.1%, 13.5%, 11.1% and 6.7%, respectively, while the O3 concentration did not change significantly. Further causal analysis found that mandatory traffic restrictions and the shutdown of industries were two important factors that contributed greatly to air quality improvement. Moreover, since the process of returning to normal daily activities and promoting the economy were gradual, the results showed that air pollution did not rebound immediately after the government called for the "resumption of production and work" and announced the "termination of the emergency response". Our findings suggest that to achieve a substantial and sustainable improvement in air quality, it is necessary to continuously implement strict emission control routines and take co-control measures for various VOCs precursors of ozone.

International Cooperation in Scientific Research during the COVID-19

The research uses the network collaborative construction theory to construct a national scientific cooperation network during the COVID-19 epidemic period, aiming to describe the evolution patterns of scientific research cooperation and the impact on the cooperation during the epidemic period. From the perspective of the cooperation network, the research calculates the network features to investigate the evolution patterns of the scientific research cooperation network. The present work also calculates the national cooperation freshness to investigate the dynamic evolution of the cooperation center. Finally, the regression discontinuity design is used to estimate the impact of the epidemic on national scientific research cooperation. The results show that the outbreak of the epidemic strengthens the scientific research cooperation. Furthermore, China played an important role in the epidemic, especially in the early stage. Although the cooperation center has gradually shifted with the change of the affected areas, China is still an important collaborator. Finally, our work studies the cooperative behavior of countries during the epidemic through regression discontinuity design and finds that the epidemic has been promoting people's ability to cooperate in fighting against disasters. © 2022, Editorial Board of Journal of the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China. All right reserved.

The effectiveness of influenza vaccine among elderly Chinese: A regression discontinuity design based on Yinzhou regional health information platform.

In China, a free influenza vaccination policy is being implemented among individuals aged 70 years and over in Zhejiang province during the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective was to assess the effectiveness of influenza vaccine in reducing hospitalization and mortality in the elderly. We used data from the Regional Health Information Platform in Yinzhou located in Zhejiang province and applied a regression discontinuity design to estimate the intention-to-treat effect on admission and mortality rates by month of age in the population who was near the age of 70 years threshold. At age 70 years, the influenza vaccination rate increased by 29.1% (95% CI, 28.2% to 29.9%) compared to those under 70 in the study population. When turning age 70 years, the potential effectiveness of receiving influenza vaccine was 8.2% (95% CI, -36.8% to 51.3%) for total hospitalization and the evaluation of vaccine effectiveness was 13.1% (95% CI, -34.2 to 61.8) for the all-cause mortality. An increase in the influenza vaccination rate was associated with a weak decline in most outcomes, but no significance was found for all outcomes. Influenza vaccination had a limited effect on hospital admission and mortality for the free influenza vaccination program that can be related to the low vaccination rate among the Chinese elderly. Supplementation strategies and future studies may be needed to expand immunization coverage and validate this finding, and further provide a reference for other cities to promote the free influenza vaccination policy in China, especially under circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Quantifying the impact of pandemic lockdown policies on global port calls.

The recent experience of lockdowns during COVID-19 highlights the prolonged impact a pandemic could have on ports and the shipping industry. This paper uses port call data derived from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) reports from the world's 30 largest container ports to quantify both the immediate and longer-term impact of national COVID-19 lockdown policies on global shipping flows. The analysis uses the Difference-in-Difference (DID) and combined regression discontinuity design (RDD)-DID models to represent the effects of lockdown policies. The combination of RDD and DID models is particularly effective because it can mitigate time trends in the data, e.g., the Chinese New Year effect on Chinese ports. This study further examines the potential shock propagation effects, namely, how lockdown policy in one country (i.e., China) can affect the number of port calls in other countries. We categorize ports in other countries into a high-connectivity (with Chinese ports) group and a low-connectivity group, using a proposed connectivity index with China derived from individual vessel trajectories obtained from the AIS data. The results provide a clearly measurable picture of the kinds of trade shocks and consequent pattern changes in port calls over time caused by responses to lockdown policies of varying levels of stringency. We further document the existence of significant shock propagation effects. As the risk of pandemics rises in the twenty-first century, these results can be used by policy makers to assess the potential impact of different levels of lockdown policy on the maritime industry and trade flows more broadly. Maritime players can also use findings such as these to manage their capacity during lockdowns more effectively and to respond more flexibly to changing demand in seaborne transportation.

Reverse Party Favoritism in Times of Pandemics: Evidence from Poland

There is an abundant empirical literature demonstrating party favoritism whereby the central government is prone to disburse financial transfers to favor aligned local governments. This contrasts with much scarcer evidence on reverse party favoritism, i.e. aligned local governments offering non-pecuniary support to the central government in times of elections. In this paper I show that such reverse party favoritism exists. To demonstrate it, I exploit the fact that during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic crisis, the Polish government was keen to launch postal voting in the presidential elections scheduled for May 2020. The organization of these elections hinged on the Polish Post getting access to the lists of voters, which were in the possession of heads of the municipal executive (mayors). Since the relevant legislation on postal voting had not been enacted on time, the vast majority of local executives refused to share their lists of voters. Nonetheless, numerous mayors did transfer the lists to the Post. By employing a set of standard (linear probability and logistic) regression models and regression discontinuity design, I show that the political alignment of mayors with the central government leads to approximately 20–25 percentage points greater likelihood of transferring the lists of voters to the Polish Post. This difference in probabilities tends to be smaller in cases of divided governments but not in cases of higher political contestability.

The cross-over of statistical thinking and practices: A pandemic catalyst.

Written during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and in recognition of Andy Grieve, the polymath, this article looks at an eclectic mix of topics where statistical thinking and practices should transcend typical dividing lines-with a particular focus on the areas of drug development, public health and social science. The case is made for embedding an experimental (or quasi-experimental) framework within clinical practice for vaccines and treatments following their marketing authorisation. A similar case is made for public health interventions-facilitated by pre-specification of effect size and by the greater use of data standards. A number of recommendations are made whilst noting that progress is being made in some areas.

How much does state aid mitigate employment losses? Local policy effects at a time of economic crisis

We evaluate the effectiveness of the most extensive experiment of income redistribution, that is, the European Union regional policy, at a time of economic crisis. By exploiting geographical discontinuities in fund eligibility, we analyse comprehensive data on all publicly funded Italian projects at the municipality level. We find a positive impact of localized support to firms with a sizable increase in employment and the number of plants in intensively treated areas. The result is an important policy lesson concerning the effects of place-based policies at a time of a long-lasting recession, such as that engendered by the Covid-19 crisis.

Characterizing the interruption-recovery patterns of urban air pollution under the COVID-19 lockdown in China.

The COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to study the effects of urban lockdown policies on the variation in pollutant concentrations and to characterize the recovery patterns of urban air pollution under the interruption of COVID-19 lockdown policies. In this paper, interruption-recovery models and regression discontinuity design were developed to characterize air pollution interruption-recovery patterns and analyze environmental impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown, using air pollution data from four Chinese metropolises (i.e., Shanghai, Wuhan, Tianjin, and Guangzhou). The results revealed the air pollutant interruption-recovery curve represented by the three lockdown response periods (Level I, Level II and Level III) during COVID-19. The curve decreased during Level I (A 25.3%-48.8% drop in the concentration of NO2 has been observed in the four metropolises compared with the same period in 2018-2019.), then recovered around reopening, but decreased again during Level III. Moreover, the interruption-recovery curve of the year-on-year air pollution difference suggests a process of first decreasing during Level I and gradually recovering to a new equilibrium during Level III (e.g., the unit cumulative difference of NO2 mass concentrations in Shanghai was 21.7, 22.5, 11.3 (µg/m3) during Level I, II, and III and other metropolises shared similar results). Our findings reveal general trends in the air quality externality of different lockdown policies, hence could provide valuable insights into air pollutant interruption-recovery patterns and clear scientific guides for policymakers to estimate the effect of different lockdown policies on urban air quality.

COVID-19 and the aviation industry: The interrelationship between the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the frequency of flights on the EU market.

This study aims to investigate the contribution of aviation related travel restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 in Europe by using quasi-experiment approaches including the regression discontinuity design and a two-stage spatial Durbin model with an instrumental variable. The study provides concrete evidence that the severe curtailing of flights had a spontaneous impact in controlling the spread of COVID-19. The counterfactual analysis encapsulated the spillover effects deduced that a 1% decrease in flight frequency can decrease the number of confirmed cases by 0.908%. The study also reveals that during the lockdown, the aviation industry cancelled over 795,000 flights, which resulted in averting an additional six million people being from being infected and saving 101,309 lives.

Small business under the COVID-19 crisis: Expected short- and medium-run effects of anti-contagion and economic policies.

This study makes a causal inference on the effects of anti-contagion and economic policies on small business by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers' expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. We first find the business suspension request decreased targeted firms' sales by 10 percentage points on top of the baseline 9 percentage points decline due to COVID-19, even though the Japanese anti-contagion policy was in a form of the government's request that is not legally enforceable. Second, using a discontinuity in the eligibility criteria, we find lump-sum and prompt subsidies improved firms' prospects of survival by 19 percentage points. Third, the medium-run recovery of firms' performance is expected to depend crucially on when infections would end, indicating that the anti-contagion policies could complement longer-run economic goals.

Does holding elections during a Covid-19 pandemic put the lives of politicians at risk?

We estimate the impact of French town hall elections held in mid-March 2020 on the mortality of 163,000 male candidates aged above 60. Their excess mortality during March and April was similar to the general population. We compare candidates in cities with two candidate lists to those in cities with only one list, as elections are more intense in contacts in the former group. We also use a regression discontinuity design and investigate mortality in 2020 depending on how candidates fared in the 2014 election. We cannot detect any causal effect of active participation in the 2020 elections on mortality.

Impact of COVID-19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in China.

In this paper, we employ a combination of time regression discontinuity design method (T-RD) and the difference-in-difference method (DID) to identify and quantify the causal effects of the strict lockdown policy on vegetable prices using multiple-year daily price data from 151 wholesale markets of Chinese cabbage. We find that the lockdown policy caused a large and immediate surge in price and price dispersion of Chinese cabbage, though they fluctuated smoothly for the same period in normal years. The DID results further show that the price surge peaked in the fourth week of lockdown but gradually came down to the level of a normal year by week 11. However, the price rose again (though to a much smaller extent) in response to the resurgence of COVID-19 in a few provinces in early-mid April but quickly returned to the normal level in week 15 when the lockdown measures were largely removed. We also find that the supply chain disruption is the driving factor for the price hike. Policy implications are drawn.